PrimeXBT: Bitcoin survived rate hikes, but can it weather a bond selloff?
Bitcoin weathered a Federal Reserve rate hike and climbed past $87,000, but surging US Treasury bond yields now pose a new challenge for the cryptocurrency as analysts monitor critical support levels.
By Jonatan Randin, Senior Market Analyst at PrimeXBT
In mid September, market conditions appeared challenging for Bitcoin. Following the failure of the CLARITY Act in the Senate on September 15 and a subsequent Federal Reserve rate hike to 3.75 to 4.00% the following day, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped briefly below $75,000. Just a week later, however, it climbed past $87,000.
Momentum stalled, however, once activity picked up in the bond market.
What happened in bonds
On September 23, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged by more than 18 basis points, marking its largest single-day jump since April 2025. Yields continued to climb, exceeding 5.2% the next day to hit levels not seen since 2007. Meanwhile, the 30-year yield touched roughly 5.50%, reaching highs last observed in 2004.
There was no singular catalyst for the shift. Contributing elements included robust PMI figures, a lackluster five-year auction, and climbing oil prices. Even a $4 billion long-bond buyback executed by the Treasury on September 24 failed to stem the rising yields.
Why the hike didn’t matter much
The rate increase was largely anticipated. Futures markets had priced in roughly a 90% probability of the hike by the eve of the meeting, meaning prior weeks of Bitcoin softness likely already accounted for that repricing.
Spot Bitcoin ETF data illustrates this trend. According to Farside Investors, these funds shed approximately $750 million across September 15 and 16, before pulling in $2.39 billion during the week leading up to September 25—marking their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025.
Why the bond move is different
A look at daily ETF inflows reveals a changing pattern: $999 million on Monday, followed by $715 million, $347 million, $191 million, and $135 million by Friday. While buying persisted, the volume diminished as yields scaled higher.
Unlike a rate hike, which involves a single decision of a known magnitude, a bond selloff lacks a fixed ceiling, leaving the market to dictate its extent. Consequently, yields sitting above 5% create direct competition for a non-yielding asset like Bitcoin.
Alternatively, some market participants view the situation through a different lens. If ongoing borrowing at elevated rates expands the national deficit and increases bond supply, many within the crypto community see that dynamic as a long-term bullish argument for Bitcoin. For the present, though, the immediate impact remains visible primarily in fund flows.
At present, Bitcoin is maintaining its position rather than expanding upon it.
What the chart says
On the 3-day chart, Bitcoin cleared the $70,000 threshold around August 20. After several weeks of consolidation near $80,000, it initiated another upward break.
This secondary breakout is significant, representing arguably the first higher high on higher timeframes since the onset of the bear market, with prices pushing above $87,000 prior to a retracement.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 3 day chart with the 20 and 50 EMA. The breakout above $80,000 marks the first higher high since the bear market began, and the 20 EMA has crossed above the 50 EMA. Source: TradingView
Moving averages corroborate this technical outlook. The 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA on the 3-day timeframe for the first time since their bearish cross in November 2025, which roughly coincided with the start of the bear market.
Price action is currently retracing the recent leg upward. The next higher timeframe support level rests at $80,000, reinforced closely by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the move from roughly $75,000 to $87,000, located near $81,000.
As long as Bitcoin preserves the $80,000 zone, the broader market structure retains a constructive outlook. A decisive break back below this threshold would call that higher high into question.
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Short FAQs
How did Bitcoin react to the September Fed rate hike?
After briefly dropping below $75,000 following the rate hike to 3.75–4.00%, Bitcoin rallied past $87,000 within a week as the hike was already largely priced into the markets.
Why did the bond market selloff impact Bitcoin’s momentum?
Unlike a predictable rate hike, the bond selloff pushed US Treasury yields above 5%, creating direct competition for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and causing institutional ETF inflows to slow down.
What key technical support levels are currently watching Bitcoin?
Analysts are closely monitoring the $80,000 support area—which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $81,000—to determine if the broader bullish market structure remains intact.
What trading instruments and features does PrimeXBT offer for this market?
PrimeXBT provides access to Crypto Futures, CFDs, Forex, and over 350 multi-asset instruments using the PXTrader 2.0 platform, featuring TradingView charts, adjustable leverage, and deep liquidity.